Londres y Bruselas deben cocinar un ‘bréxit’ rápido y poco conflictivo | Mercados

El proceso de salida del club del euro, a la vista de cómo se desarrolla la negociación entre Londres y Bruselas, se parece más al lento avance de un paquidermo que a la ligereza de una ardilla. La de momento última ronda de negociaciones entre ambos jugadores se cerró ayer con perspectivas no demasiado halagüeñas. Michel Barnier, el representante de los 27, y David Davis, el ministro británico encargado de negociar el acuerdo, resumieron el encuentro con distinto talante –más duro el francés, más optimista el británico– pero con idéntica conclusión: las negociaciones del bréxit están prácticamente en punto muerto, a falta de un acuerdo sobre diversos aspectos clave del proceso. El más importante: la factura de la salida de Gran Bretaña de la UE.

Las conversaciones entre Londres y Bruselas se han articulado en dos fases: la salida y las condiciones de asociación de Reino Unido con Europa. Barnier insistía ayer, con razón, en que es necesario culminar la primera parte de la negociación y acordar el montante de la factura, además de otros detalles que restan por cerrar, antes de iniciar la segunda fase. No parece una tarea fácil cuando desde Londres han comenzado a llegar mensajes que apuntan a la posibilidad de que la salida se convierta en ruptura. Como señalaba ayer el propio Barnier, el peor escenario posible es el escenario del no acuerdo.

El manejo del gigantesco entramado de relaciones económicas e intereses financieros que supone el bréxit no es una tarea sencilla ni pacífica, pero a ello se suman las vicisitudes de un partido conservador británico sumido en una evidente crisis y con un liderazgo –el de Theresa May– cada vez más frágil. A las voces que se alzan poniendo en cuestión la conveniencia de la salida se añade una May que se ha negado a contestar qué votaría en otro referéndum sobre el bréxit. Gran Bretaña debe aclarar y fortalecer su postura y Europa ha de presionar lo necesario para que esa clarificación se lleve a cabo. Porque solo hay una cosa más dañina para Europa y Reino Unido que un divorcio: un divorcio lento y conflictivo.

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Las dudas de May y Merkel paralizan el ‘brexit’ al menos hasta diciembre de este año | Mercados

La suerte aún no está echada, pero pinta muy mal para las negociaciones del brexit, que este jueves quedaron temporalmente embarrancadas tras la quinta ronda de contactos en Bruselas.

El proceso ha entrado en vía muerta por las dudas del Gobierno británico sobre el rumbo a seguir y la incertidumbre en el bando europeo sobre la posición del futuro Gabinete de la canciller alemana, Angela Merkel, todavía en formación.

El frenazo aumenta el riesgo de una ruptura sin acuerdo en marzo de 2019, cuando expira el plazo de dos años para concluir las negociaciones de salida de Reino Unido de la UE. La creciente amenaza provocó este jueves una caída inmediata de la libra, que perdió en torno al 1% en su cotización frente al dólar y pasó de 1,326 a 1,318.

Las dudas de May y Merkel paralizan el ‘brexit’ al menos hasta diciembre de este año

De momento, ya se ha incumplido el primer objetivo temporal, que preveía cerrar en la cumbre europea de octubre (19 y 20) la primera fase de negociación para pasar a la segunda, centrada en la futura relación comercial, política y diplomática entre la UE y Reino Unido.

“Dado el estado actual de las cosas, no estoy en condiciones de proponer al Consejo Europeo la semana que viene abrir las discusiones sobre al futura relación”, señaló el negociador jefe de la Comisión Europea, Michel Barnier, tras la conclusión de la quinta ronda de contactos. Aun así, el negociador británico, David Davis, se mostró esperanzado en que la próxima cumbre europea autorice a Barnier a iniciar los trabajos sobre la futura relación.

Pero Bruselas, de momento, no se da por satisfecha con las ofertas presentadas por Londres para resolver los tres puntos espinosos de la primera fase: la factura de la salida del Reino Unido para abandonar el club, los derechos de los ciudadanos europeos en suelo británico (y viceversa) y la gestión de las fronteras entre Irlanda (socio de la UE) y Gran Bretaña.

La primera ministra, Theresa May, se mostró dispuesta el pasado 22 de septiembre a mantener su aportación a las arcas de la UE hasta 2020, un año después de la salida, para cubrir los compromisos del actual periodo presupuestario europeo (2014-2020).

Pero ni a Bruselas le parece suficiente, ni May parece en condiciones de ofrecer garantías sobre el cumplimiento de su oferta, dada su inestabilidad al frente del Gobierno como consecuencia de la rebelión larvada de los conservadores partidarios de un brexit tajante y sin factura.

“Estamos estancados”, reconoció Barnier en relación con las cuentas pendientes, solo dos semanas después de que May hiciera su oferta con un discurso en Florencia en el que intentó, sin éxito, imponer su liderazgo en Londres e impulsar las negociaciones del brexit.

Aparte de los titubeos de May, el estancamiento de la negociación también se debe a las dudas de Berlín sobre la conveniencia de un brexit más o menos duro.

La industria alemana, con la automovilística al frente, reclaman un brexit lo menos traumático posible para sus intereses. Pero una parte de la clase política alemana, sobre todo, la más europeísta, desea que el brexit marque un claro precedente sobre la diferencia d e pertenecer o no al mercado interior europeo, como aviso para euroescépticos de otros países.

La canciller alemana, Angela Merkel, vacila entre ambas opciones. Y su decisión final dependerá, en parte, de la coalición de Gobierno que negocia con los Liberales (más proclives a un brexit blando) y los Verdes (partidarios de no hacer concesiones a Londres).

El nuevo Gobierno alemán no asumirá sus funciones hasta final de año, como pronto. Y a la espera de mayor claridad a ambos lados del canal de la Mancha, la UE ha prolongado dos meses, hasta diciembre, el plazo para cerrar la primera fase de negociación.

Pero de momento, según fuentes europeas, prevalece la idea de mantener una posición dura frente a May, aunque sea a riesgo de causar daños a ciertas industrias europeas. “Los británicos nunca calcularon que la UE está dispuesta a pagar un precio económico para salvar su proyecto político”, resume un alto cargo europeo.

13.000 euros por británico si no hay pacto

Londres se resiste a aceptar la factura de salida que reclama Bruselas, que podría oscilar entre 40.000 y 100.000 millones de euros. Pero el coste podría ser descomunalmente mayor si la salida se produce sin acuerdo, según los cálculos de la entidad financiera Rabobank.

Ese banco calcula que una salida en 2019 sin acuerdo tendría un impacto en el PIB del Reino Unido de unos 445.000 millones de euros hasta 2030, o unos 12.800 euros por persona. Tan tremendo impacto sería producto de las barreras comerciales que surgirían por la falta de acuerdo, la caída de la inversión, la pérdida de los sectores financieros y la reducción de la emigración europea hacia Reino Unido, según el estudio de Rabobank.

La libra cayó ayer un 0,37% frente al euro. Desde los máximos que alcanzó la divisa británica en septiembre –cuando volvió a niveles del brexit– retrocede un 3%.

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An independent Catalonia: practicalities of leaving Spain | World news

The immediate practical consequences of Catalan independence – like those of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal – would have far-reaching implications for the region, its businesses and its people.

As with warnings of City firms fleeing a hard Brexit, industry is already alarmed: half a dozen Spanish companies, including major banks, are moving their registered head offices to guarantee access to their domestic and wider EU markets.

Despite claims by pro-independence campaigners that the EU would not want to lose a wealthy region that would rank 15th or 16th in the bloc in terms of GDP, Brussels has made clear that the region will not automatically become a member.

It would have to apply, and acceptance would require the agreement of every other EU member state – including Spain, which in 2014 threatened to veto an eventual Scottish accession bid precisely to discourage Catalan independence.

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The Spanish government argues that any referendum on Catalan independence would be illegal because the country’s 1978 constitution makes no provision for a vote on self-determination.

The Spanish constitutional court, which has suspended the referendum law pushed through the Catalan parliament earlier this month, is looking into whether the law breaches the constitution.

In March this year, the former Catalan president Artur Mas was banned from holding public office for two years after being found guilty of disobeying the constitutional court by holding a symbolic independence referendum three years ago.

Catalonia has much of the paraphernalia of statehood: it has a flag, a parliament, its own police force and broadcast regulator, and it provides some of its own public services such as healthcare and education.

But an independent Catalonia would need to establish its own central bank, inland revenue, air traffic control and defence force, all of which are currently run from Madrid – as are electricity and gas transportation and distribution.

The region’s telephone networks are run by major Spanish and foreign operators and also regulated from Madrid. Its airports are 51% owned by the Spanish state, and its railway tracks and rolling stock are operated by the state.

Outside the EU, Catalonia would also have to establish its own border controls and customs service. The borders between Catalonia, Spain and France would become external borders of both the EU and the passport-free Schengen zone.

Britain’s apparent inability to devise a solution to precisely this problem for the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic that is practicable and that the EU will accept shows how complex such issues can rapidly become.

An independent Catalonia would need to set up its own trading standards regulators and to start negotiating its own trade agreements. Unlike Britain, it is not a member of the World Trade Organisation, putting it at an instant disadvantage.

Like British nationals, Catalans would lose their EU citizenship – but also their Spanish citizenship: if Madrid really plays it tough, they could conceivably find themselves having to apply for visas to visit not just the EU but also Spain.

As Britain’s experience with Brexit shows, leaving the EU is not a straightforward process. An independent Catalonia, however, would face an altogether greater problem: it would also have to exit the eurozone, at least temporarily.

A number of small states, including Andorra, Monaco, San Marino and Vatican City, have signed agreements with the EU to use the euro, but their economies are minuscule compared with Catalonia’s, which is nearly the size of Ireland’s.

The region’s main business lobby, Cercle d’Economia, last week said a unilateral declaration of independence “would plunge the country into an extraordinarily complex situation, with unknown, but very serious, consequences”: Brexit, but with bells on.

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Theresa May dice que har frente a cualquier complot para derrocarla | Internacional Home Tags

Theresa May, en la convencin conservadora celebrada recientemente en Manchester.

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Endlessly refighting old wars does nothing to heal a fractured present | Will Hutton | Opinion

There is too much remembering. Whether it’s Catalonia or Scotland, Serbia or Saxony – not to mention Brexiters invoking the memory of Trafalgar, Agincourt and Elizabeth I – Europe is plunging ever deeper into an orgy of unforgiving remembrance.

A collective curse has settled over our continent, in which past triumphs are contrasted with present grievances. Only independence, taking back control and avenging a continuum of injustice can restore justice, prosperity and lost glory, even if, in Catalonia, there could be a slide to civil war, as EU commissioner Günther Oettinger warns. It is not that the rest of the world is immune from this contagion: witness the passions over the Confederate flag in Charlottesville, Japanese politicians genuflecting at their war shrine or jihadists avenging the Crusades. But Europe, with so many tribes boasting so much history in so many countries, is the memory capital of the globe, where too many states are so vulnerable to the agonies of secession and fragmentation.

The latest manifestation is in Catalonia. Here is one of the most prosperous regions in Europe boasting one of the most dynamic cities, Barcelona, invoking tribal memories of a glorious past to insist on independence from the Castilian yoke. For Catalan nationalists, Spain has not changed its spots: it remains the autocratic, oppressive state it always was, with Franco’s falangism only just beneath the surface. Catalonia must restore ancient glories and regain control of its destiny, not least over its taxes. This week, the Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, is to address Catalonia’s parliament, following the controversial independence referendum with a 90% yes vote. But it was won from less than half the electorate, following the legitimate if crude attempt by the Spanish government to suppress it on the day.

Rubber bullets are never a good idea. Yet Spain’s constitutional court ruled the referendum unconstitutional and has now ruled that the proposed session of the Catalan parliament to act on the result should be suspended as illegal, being outside Spain’s 1978 settlement setting out the terms on which its regions’ parliaments can meet. It is right. Hence this week’s parliamentary meeting will be a rebellious gathering if Puigdemont goes ahead. Insiders believe he will call for independence. There will be no recognition by any member of the EU; no legal recognition in Spain or Europe’s courts; no membership of any international intergovernmental grouping. There won’t even be agreement on what currency it can use.

Catalan president Carles Puigdemont could declare independence within days.



Catalan president Carles Puigdemont could declare independence within days. Photograph: Lluis Gene/AFP/Getty Images

The Catalan government knows all this, even courting the arrests that will follow and the imposition of direct rule by Madrid. But there is a powerful faction that wants to set in train a dynamic that will lead to real independence, at whatever economic and social cost. Already, half-a-dozen companies have left Catalonia, with the Spanish government offering assistance. That movement will turn into a rush. This is a gathering calamity.

The best justification for what is happening is that these inflated memories are but froth on a deeper and natural yearning of every subnational, culturally united minority to enjoy civic self-determination. The worst interpretation is to see Catalonia as an expression of a destructive populist appeal to its citizens’ worst instincts – puffed-up hatred of the other, driven by false grievances and impossible hopes – while cloaking those unappetising instincts in the language of self-government and democracy.

The complicated truth is that, while there is a proper appetite for more self-government, we should be more clear eyed about all this remembering of old injustices as the source of the passion. It leads nowhere but to enmity and an inflaming of nonexistent differences – Catalans and Castilians are both inheritors of Europe’s Enlightenment traditions and, above all, respecters of the rule of law. Now there are tensions bordering on conflict.

As American writer David Rieff argues in his subtle and important book In Praise of Forgetting, we are living in an era of the cult of the memory, which is phenomenally destructive. Yes, it is proper to remember, but just as it becomes psychotic for individuals to live in the past, wanting to avenge injustices from childhood, so obsession with memory is psychotic for communities. Be aware of what is going on, writes Rieff, when the French Front National celebrates Joan of Arc, the SNP William Wallace or, as happened yesterday, when tens of thousands of Polish Catholics prayed for Europe on the anniversary of the battle of Lepanto, a Christian routing of Muslims.

History is being manipulated to serve an agenda of closure and a justification for ethnically based superiority, the worst example of which was the atrocities committed in Bosnia. Respect the past, argues Rieff, but distrust its deification for partisan ends. We should do more forgiving and forgetting and, in an era of globalisation, try to create governance structures better able to sustain fair societies.

Spain is tottering on the brink. A Catalan declaration of independence followed by direct rule from Madrid would be a trigger for civic mayhem and colossal economic dislocation. There are some optimistic signs. Over the weekend, there have been apologies from both sides for the violence: Madrid suggests elections – and maybe Puigdemont will draw back. Yet the atmosphere is suffocatingly cloaked with too much remembering.

The right response, as Catalonia’s Socialist party argues, is for Spain to recreate itself as a republican, federal state rather than attempt to sustain itself as a monarchially legitimised unitary state. The only way to avoid disaster and give the mainstream parties in Catalonia the political ammunition to argue against secession, which neither they nor the majority of Catalans want, is to offer the prospect of an autonomous Catalonia within a federal Spain. It is through political creativity that historical myth can be relegated to where it belongs, along with much more determined and imaginative activism to address inequalities and neglect.

Similarly in Britain. If the unfolding disaster of Brexit is to be stopped in its tracks, and the over-remembered, over-deified past restored to its proper place, we need parallel creativity – a constitutional settlement with Europe and, at home, a real assault on the injustices that fed what was at bottom a protest vote against a status quo too many found intolerable. Too much remembering has become toxic. It is time to forget and move on.

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La UE intensifica los contactos con Jeremy Corbyn ante el temor de que caiga Theresa May | Internacional Home Tags

Jeremy Corbyn en la clausura del Congreso anual del Partido Laborista, el 27 de septiembre.

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Spanish ambassador to UK calls Catalan referendum a ‘coup d’etat’ | World news

The Spanish ambassador to the UK, Carlos Bastarreche, has claimed that Europe is watching “a slow-motion, low-cost coup d’etat” by the Catalan government.

He also urged the British people to disregard David Cameron’s decision to grant an independence referendum to the Scottish people in 2014, saying it was not comparable to the Spanish government’s decision to block the Catalan vote.

The ambassador warned the UK may be the first to be affected if Catalonia breaks away after Sunday’s referendum. Bastarreche believes it would revive calls by Scottish nationalists for Scotland to stay in the EU after Brexit, and possibly create a split.

He said: “If the Catalan government succeed it will be a drama for Europe, starting with the UK, because it will mean that a region can disobey the rule of law.”

Numerous British commentators have suggested that the Spanish government should follow the example of Cameron’s coalition government, which granted the Scottish people a referendum.

The Catalan government is pressing ahead with a referendum in the face of obstruction by the Spanish executive, judiciary and the police. The Catalan parliament has declared that the result will be binding, but the Spanish government says it is illegal.

The possibility that Catalonia will be stripped of its legal powers of self-government, or even that the army will be sent in, has not been ruled out.

The Spanish court has also ordered public officials not to cooperate with the ballot, and has vowed to close any polling station, as well as seize ballot papers, in order to disrupt what has been decreed an illegal referendum called by the Catalan parliament in breach of procedures.

Bastarreche, who was appointed ambassador in February, said: “Catalan secessionist leaders are running a sort of slow-motion, low-cost coup d’etat, using soft violence, that has serious implications for European stability.”

He said comparisons to Cameron granting a Scottish referendum were “not valid or helpful to explain the situation in Catalonia because of Spain’s written constitution, which is a product of a different history”.

“This is not a dispute between Madrid and Catalonia. On the one side is a democratic Spain and its independent judicial system, and on the other side not Catalonia, but a group of radical nationalists and leftwing extremists in the regional power that are not complying with the law,” Bastarreche said.

He argued the UK was unusual in not having a written constitution, and most constitutions in Europe underline the indivisibility of the nation state. Catalonia joined the rest of Spain in endorsing the written constitution with a referendum in 1978.

Bastarreche said: “Most countries have written constitutions, and the Spanish one is a product of our 500-year history, and one of its central principles is the indivisibility of the kingdom.”

Although the Spanish government has the strong support of the UK government in its struggle with Catalonia, there is a frustration in Madrid that the British experience with the Scottish referendum has led to political sympathy for the Catalan demand for a legally recognised referendum.

Bastarreche said: “Bavaria cannot be a separate state and neither would the German court allow it. California has not been given the right to secede. The Spanish territory is not divisible but to fit its diversity there is a very decentralised system.

“There is nothing in international law that gives any region a right to self-determination in a democratic state.”

Spanish sources point out that even though Scotland was granted a referendum in 2014, now it was not being given the right to decide whether to remain inside the EU, even though Scotland voted heavily against Brexit.

Bastarreche added: “We have a rich cultural diversity, in particular the Basque country, Andalusia, Galicia and the Canary Islands, and Catalonia adds to that diversity. Without Catalonia, Spain is no longer Spain. States must always uphold the law.”

Explicit political support for the Catalan referendum in the UK has been confined to Scottish nationalists, and some Greens who have written to Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, criticising his methods.

Alan Duncan, the Europe minister, has said: “Spain is a great ally of the United Kingdom.” Asked about the situation in Catalonia, he insisted Theresa May’s government was “on the side of the rule of law and the Spanish constitution”.

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The Guardian view of the Labour conference: Corbyn’s party | Editorial | Opinion

It is not an understatement to say that Jeremy Corbyn has revolutionised the politics of the British left. Rather than triangulating around the centre, Mr Corbyn demonstrated that the Labour party can succeed by standing for what it says it believes in. Mr Corbyn argued the country was sick of austerity and inequality and prescribed the sugary medicine of “tax and spend” policies to heal it. His unexpectedly good showing at the June election, when he was written off by the pollsters and dismissed by his opponents, has ensured the Labour party now belongs to Mr Corbyn.

The 68-year-old has proved an unlikely political entrepreneur. His policies spotted a gap in the market – young voters who had been electorally orphaned by mainstream policies – and he produced ideas designed to appeal to them, such as scrapping university tuition fees, wrapped up in a message of hope: that of a new kind of politics. Mr Corbyn advanced a participatory model of politics, which argued that party members in groups such as Momentum should be on equal footing with Labour MPs.

What this means for Labour might start to be answered at its party conference, which began this weekend in the seaside town of Brighton. Mr Corbyn’s team has tightened its grip over the leadership and gained control of the national executive committee, the party’s administrative body, by expanding the number of seats controlled by the left. This went through with a change to the rules for leadership elections, cutting the number of nominations from MPs and MEPs needed from 15% to 10%, important for the left to ensure that one of its own has a chance to succeed Mr Corbyn.

The cause of intra-party democracy is worth considering from the vantage point of history. It is true that party members, who enthusiastically backed Mr Corbyn when his MPs did not, had a better sense of the mood of the country than the parliamentary party in the last elections. However, democratic principles should not end up being exploited for the benefit of putschists, a threat made real by warnings of mandatory reselection. The left’s recent victories – electing Mr Corbyn, not once but twice; democratising the party; and energising an activist base – could easily become pyrrhic ones, as similar episodes proved in the past.

The key to the success of Mr Corbyn’s refashioning of the Labour party may well be the restraint he is able to muster. The Labour party’s manifesto was a programme that was leftwing by recent British standards but it would be considered mainstream in much of western Europe. Mr Corbyn has many more radical ideas: his suggestion for a maximum wage goes way beyond the party’s platform. However, he has not forced his own views onto his party.

Brexit is Mr Corbyn’s achilles heel: where the expanding party membership is more pro-EU than he is. Today the left lobbied hard to avoid a damaging conference row over membership of the single market, which Mr Corbyn argues might restrict a future Labour government’s ability to implement a truly radical agenda. The impression is that ordinary members’ opinions matter less than activists’, who perhaps share Mr Corbyn’s Euroscepticism.

The Labour leader’s ideas for “movement” politics are rooted in global trends, which have led to the grassroots success of US senator Bernie Sanders and the advances of Podemos’s people’s assemblies in Spain. While such experiments have a dynamism missing from slow-moving parliamentary processes, it is a mistake to think representative democracy is redundant in an age of networked politics. In parliament, the Labour party will have to make the case for higher taxes and better public services for years to come. Mr Corbyn’s election results showed that he could come up with an idea at least as attractive as the vision his internal detractors have been asked to turn their eyes from. He will have to do so again.

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Theresa May pide dos años de transición para abandonar la UE | Mercados

La primera ministra británica, Theresa May, ha abandonado este viernes las posiciones más duras sobre el brexit y se ofreció a negociar todas las demandas de la UE con tal de evitar un cataclismo en marzo de 2019, cuando expira el plazo de dos años fijado para negociar la definitiva salida del Reino Unido del club. A cambio pide un período transitorio de otros dos años (hasta 2021) y una relación como socio privilegiado a partir de entonces.

El drástico giro de la tambaleante líder británica fue recibido con satisfacción en Bruselas. Pero podría costarle una rebelión del ala euroescéptica de su partido, liderada por el ministro de Asuntos exteriores, Boris Johnson, que no oculta sus deseos por un brexit duro ni su disgusto con las tácticas de negociación de May.

Por si acaso, May pronunció su discurso en la ciudad italiana de Florencia, lejos de un Londres donde sus palabras provocaron agitación y una caída de la cotización de la libra esterlina ante la falta de detalles sobre cómo espera lograr May ese trato de favor de la UE.

“Los ciudadanos y las empresas, tanto en Reino Unido como en la UE, saldrían beneficiados con un período para ajustarse a la nueva situación de manera suave y ordenada”, señaló May. La primera ministra cifró ese plazo “en dos años”, lo que aplazaría la salida efectiva y definitiva del Reino Unido al menos hasta 2021, cinco años después del referéndum del 23 de junio de 2016 que desencadenó el brexit.

Las negociaciones se retoman el lunes


  • El negociador jefe de la UE para el brexit recordó este viernes que las principales prioridades de Bruselas en la negociación con Londres son la situación de los europeos residentes en el Reino Unido y los británicos en el resto de la UE, las relación fronteriza entre Irlanda e Irlanda del Norte y la factura del “divorcio” entre Londres y Bruselas.

  • Las delegaciones de la Unión Europea y Reino Unido han celebrado hasta ahora tres rondas de negociaciones en las que se han logrado exiguos avances. En la última de ellas, celebrada a finales de agosto, Bruselas advirtió que solo estaba avanzando en temas secundarios, como en el estatus de los trabajadores transfronterizos, los procedimientos en marcha ante los tribunales de justicia o el área de viaje común entre Reino Unido e Irlanda. Las parálisis llevó a Barnier a proponer a Londres elevar la frecuencia de las reuniones.

  • Este lunes arrancará en Bruselas la cuarta ronda de negociaciones, que se prolongará hasta el jueves. Las tres anteriores arrojaron escasos resultados. El discurso de May y la conclusión del período electoral en Alemania podrían permitir mayores avances a partir de ahora.

El ruego de May llegó acompañado de una cascada de gestos de buena voluntad hacia Europa, con la esperanza de relanzar las negociaciones iniciadas con poco éxito en marzo del año pasado. La primera ministra ministra se comprometió a saldar las cuentas con el club europeo hasta 2020 (aunque sin concretar una oferta económica) y a respetar los derechos de los tres millones de europeos que residen o trabajan en Reino Unido.

May, además, retiró las veladas amenazas lanzadas en anteriores discursos y documentos, en los que había sugerido la posibilidad de convertir a Reino Unido en un paraíso fiscal para dañar a la UE y había amenazado con restringir la colaboración en la lucha antiterrorista si no se lograba un acuerdo sobre el brexit satisfactorio para Londres.

Las palabras conciliadoras de May llegan solo 48 horas antes de las elecciones en Alemania, una señal a la canciller Angela Merkel, de quien espera obtener ayuda para un brexit suave si, como parece muy probable, sale reelegida. La industria alemana no oculta su deseo de una transición suave, como pide May, y una relación comercial especial a partir de entonces.

Bruselas confía en que el cambio de tono de la primera ministra acelere las negociaciones, pero la situación en Londres cada vez resulta más caótica

 

El negociador-jefe de la UE, Michel Barnier, celebró el cambio de tono en Londres. “Theresa May ha expresado un espíritu constructivo (…) y su discurso muestra el deseo de avanzar”, señaló.

Barnier considera “un paso adelante” la oferta sobre los ciudadanos europeos, pero espera que se concrete. Y también se reserva la última palabra sobre la oferta presupuestaria de Londres, para comprobar si cubre todas las partidas. Bruselas no ha puesto cifra a su factura pero podría oscilar entre 40.000 y 60.000 millones, aunque algunos cálculos la elevan a 100.000 millones.

Barnier confía en que el discurso de May permita avanzar más rápido, aunque la situación en Londres parece cada vez más caótica

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El Reino Unido y la Unin Europea: un futuro compartido | Internacional Home Tags

La primera ministra britnica, Theresa May, durante el discurso sobre el ‘Brexit’, en Florencia.

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